Duncan Campaign Poised to Unveil Broad Set of Public Policy Proposals

Release Comes as New Polling Tests Messages in County Executive Race

April 1, 2014 2:05 p.m.

As the effort to reclaim his old job enters the final stretch leading up to the June 24 Democratic primary, former County Executive Doug Duncan plans within the next week to release a broad set of public policy proposals – a document that sources said has been in the works for the past six to eight months.

The unveiling of the policy document comes as a public opinion survey of county residents – apparently underwritten by the Duncan campaign – has been seeking to test messages Duncan could utilize on the stump and in targeted advertising against his two primary opponents:  incumbent Ike Leggett and County Councilmember Phil Andrews.

Sources close to the Duncan campaign declined to discuss the poll or even to confirm the campaign is behind it. However, Duncan is so far the only one of the three county executive candidates to have retained an outside pollster: Chevy Chase-based Hickman Analytics, headed by veteran pollster Harrison Hickman, who also conducted a survey in late 2012 as Duncan was preparing to announce his intentions to run. Poll respondents reported receiving phone calls between March 23 and March 26 with the questions asked by Idaho-based Mountain West Research, a survey firm that has worked extensively with Hickman in the past.

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While Andrews, considered the longshot in the Democratic contest, was included in some aspects of the poll – such as when respondents were asked to state their preference for county executive and how favorably they viewed the candidates in the current field — much of the survey involved the reading of a series of positive and negative statements related to Duncan and Leggett. Respondents were then asked to rate how persuasive these comments would be as they assessed for whom to vote.

One statement spoke of Duncan’s plans to upgrade the Internet infrastructure in the county in an effort to attract private investment and boost the local economy. While Duncan has so far addressed technology during the campaign in general terms, an Internet-related proposal is expected to be a major focus of Duncan’s forthcoming public policy document. The latter is expected to be released online in e-book format, with the campaign possibly producing limited printed copies to be made available at events where the candidate appears.

Overall, the messages whose effectiveness the poll sought to measure track with several of the themes Duncan has raised during the first part of the campaign. These include his recent criticism of Leggett for moving several biotech firms out of a technology “incubator” in Gaithersburg to make way for a new cybersecurity center.  (Conversely, the survey tested reaction to a Leggett “positive’; i.e. the incumbent’s efforts to attract cybersecurity research to the county.)

Interestingly, the survey did not ask about what has become a key point of Duncan’s attacks on Leggett: the construction problems that have delayed the opening of the Silver Spring transit center. One knowledgeable source not connected to any of the county executive campaigns suggested this line of attack already may have been tested by a third party, and that the Duncan campaign is convinced of its potency as an issue.

But the poll did seek to measure potential voter reaction to another recent Duncan criticism of Leggett – that the incumbent has not done enough to secure state funding for needed school construction in the county.

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At one point, the survey asked “Which candidate would you prefer if this is all you knew about them?” and then gave the respondent the choice between two unnamed candidates. In this choice, one candidate takes the position that “Baltimore city schools are failing while Montgomery County’s are some of the best. So it is only fair and reasonable to put the priority on increasing assistance to Baltimore city before Montgomery gets more.” The other candidate takes the position that “we will fight to ensure that Montgomery schools get the funding they need from the state government even if it means not giving everything Baltimore city politicians want for their schools.”

This question tracked with a pointed exchange between Duncan and Leggett during a debate in Bethesda last month. During that session, Leggett contended “political reality” was such that “you cannot solve the challenges of school construction in the state of Maryland without first solving the challenges in Baltimore city.” Duncan later charged Leggett “was there fighting for the children of Baltimore, and not fighting for the children of Montgomery County,” a suggestion that Leggett characterized as “offensive.”

If the Duncan campaign to date has been seen by some party insiders as doing little more than raising such lines of attack to see what sticks, the unveiling of the new set of policy proposals could help Duncan set out a more comprehensive vision for governing if he wins a second stint at the County Executive Office Building in Rockville. Although an outside design firm has been retained for the launch of the online policy document, the content is said to have been crafted largely by Duncan and campaign aides based on meetings and feedback from nearly 1,000 individuals and groups.

As for the poll by Hickman – who, according to campaign finance filings, charged Duncan $33,000 for a similar survey 18 months ago – insiders expect that, if the numbers look good, the survey will be shared selectively with potential donors as Duncan tries to close the fundraising gap against Leggett. Meanwhile, the Leggett campaign is said to be interviewing outside pollsters, although sources said no decision has been reached on which, if any, to bring on board.

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